Recent Bitcoin metrics hint that the ongoing bull market might still have room to grow, with analysts eyeing a price target of $146,000 for this cycle. Notably, there are currently no signs of the overvaluation typically seen at market peaks.
Market Trends and Investor Behavior
A report from CryptoQuant reveals that the value amassed by new Bitcoin holders remains noticeably lower than in previous cycles. At present, these investors account for just over 50% of the total Bitcoin investments, a stark contrast to the peaks seen in 2017 and 2021, where the figures soared above 90% and 80%, respectively.
This trend may stem from a recent decline in retail Bitcoin purchases. Historically, a spike in retail activity often signals a market peak. However, since October, retail investors have shed around 41,000 BTC. Meanwhile, larger investors have been more active, increasing their holdings by an impressive 130,000 BTC.
Institutional Buying and ETF Surge
In past bullish markets, aggressive buying by retail investors has often foreshadowed market shifts. Yet, this pattern seems absent at the moment, suggesting a notable transition in the market dynamics where institutional and larger players are taking the lead in buying behavior. For instance, investment through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged in November, leading to a historic weekly influx of $3.1 billion during the week ending November 22, coinciding with Bitcoin’s peak price of $99,655.50.
Following that peak, Bitcoin’s price saw a decline to around $91,000 on November 26, failing to conquer the critical $100,000 milestone. Some analysts speculate a possible correction of as much as 30% before Bitcoin successfully breaks into six-figure territory.
Future Price Predictions
CryptoQuant’s market cycle indicator has classified the market as bullish since early November, indicating a steady upward trajectory. However, it has yet to reach the overheated phase last seen in March 2024 when Bitcoin’s prices exceeded $70,000.
From the lens of realized price valuation, analysts consider an upper price target of $146,000 for Bitcoin. This price range historically acts as a resistance level, particularly noted during the April-May 2021 cycle. Moreover, the Profit and Loss Index has not yet revealed overbought conditions in this cycle, implying there remains significant potential for further price appreciation.
Source: Cointelegraph
