Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has recently shared his apprehensions about how Donald Trump’s upcoming presidential inauguration might impact the cryptocurrency markets. In a blog post titled “Trump Truth,” he painted a rather bleak picture, suggesting that the optimism surrounding expected changes in Trump’s policies could be misguided.
Market Expectations and Realities
Despite many experts leaning toward a bullish outlook for crypto following Trump’s leadership, Hayes cautioned that the rapid changes investors are hoping for may not happen as anticipated. He pointed out a common mismatch between the high hopes of crypto enthusiasts and the intricate realities of implementing new policies.
Hayes also disclosed that his investment firm, Maelstrom, plans to take proactive measures by partially selling off specific holdings ahead of a likely downturn in Bitcoin. They aim to re-enter the market at lower price points in the first half of 2025. He expressed skepticism about the possibility of countries establishing national Bitcoin reserves anytime soon. According to him, there is an unrealistic belief that Trump can quickly bring about significant economic and political reforms—given the complexities involved in policy-making.
Anticipated Market Movements
Looking ahead, Hayes posited that the cryptocurrency community may soon confront a harsh truth: Trump will have roughly one year after his inauguration to enact meaningful policy changes. This reality could spark a steep decline in cryptocurrency values and related assets, leading to a major market sell-off coinciding with Trump’s swearing-in. After this potential dip, he forecasts a recovery phase in 2025, which some refer to as a “crack-up-boom.”
Since Trump’s election victory in early November, the cryptocurrency market has experienced impressive growth, with Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark by early December. Certain analysts, including those at Singapore’s Matrixport, predict a positive trend for Bitcoin in 2025, suggesting that many investors might regret not buying more during this time.
Caution in the Air
However, Hayes isn’t the only one sounding alarms about early 2025. Reports from Protos indicate that MicroStrategy may enter a lull in its share and convertible bond activities, which could hinder its ability to acquire additional Bitcoin during that period. All in all, caution seems to be the prevailing sentiment as the new administration takes shape.
Source: Cointelegraph
