In a surprising turn of events, cryptocurrency issues were notably missing from President Trump’s first executive actions and pardons.
However, the betting landscape suggests that changes surrounding these topics are on the horizon.
High Confidence in Ulbricht’s Pardon
On the Polymarket platform, gamblers are placing their bets with an astonishing 99% confidence that Donald Trump will issue a pardon to Ross Ulbricht within the first hundred days of his next administration.
Noteworthy endorsements from influential personalities like Elon Musk and Angela McArdle, Chair of the Libertarian National Committee, have fueled this optimism on social media regarding the potential timing for Ulbricht’s pardon.
Despite the absence of cryptocurrency discussions in Trump’s initial statements and actions, bettors firmly believe that Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road marketplace, is on the brink of receiving a pardon.
Trump’s Previous Comments and Current Speculations
Following recent statements from Musk and McArdle, the betting odds on Polymarket soared, reflecting a near certainty of Ulbricht being included in Trump’s list of pardons.
During a campaign appearance at the Libertarian National Convention last May, Trump hinted at his willingness to commute Ulbricht’s life sentence, noting that he had already spent more than a decade behind bars.
In 2015, Ulbricht was sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole for his role in facilitating the Silk Road’s operations, which became infamous for enabling illegal transactions on the dark web.
Many supporters argue that his punishment is disproportionately harsh compared to the crimes he committed.
Broader Implications for the Cryptocurrency Landscape
The Polymarket betting market also highlights interest in other potential pardons, including one for Roger Ver, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space facing tax fraud allegations.
Bettors currently assign a 32% chance that Ver might receive a pardon early in Trump’s new term.
Interestingly, while cryptocurrencies featured prominently in Trump’s previous presidential campaign, bettors now estimate only a 43% likelihood of an executive order regarding the regulation or trading of digital assets within the first week of his new administration.
The interplay of these factors underscores a complex and evolving narrative as Trump resumes office, with many eyes on Ulbricht’s potential pardon and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency landscape.
Source: Coindesk
