The chances of President-elect Donald Trump implementing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve are growing, as indicated by betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Current estimates on Kalshi show that traders believe there’s nearly a 70% likelihood he will establish a BTC reserve by 2026.
Meanwhile, Polymarket participants suggest there’s a 42% chance that this initiative will take shape within his first 100 days in office.
Growing Confidence in Bitcoin Reserve
These probabilities have surged by around 20% since the beginning of January, reflecting increasing confidence among bettors.
Many are speculating that both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) might soar to new all-time highs by 2025.
Prediction markets serve as a fascinating arena where individuals can buy and sell contracts tied to specific future events.
The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on public sentiment and expected outcomes.
During the last U.S. elections, Polymarket and Kalshi garnered substantial attention, amassing over $4 billion in trading volume connected to the presidential race.
Their predictions not only surpassed many traditional polling methods but also accurately anticipated Trump’s electoral victory and significant gains for his party in Congress.
Legislative Developments
In a noteworthy announcement at the Bitcoin 2024 conference this past July, Trump articulated his ambition to create a “strategic national Bitcoin reserve.” He assured his supporters that his administration would not liquidate any Bitcoin owned by the U.S. government.
In November, Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent crypto advocate in Congress, introduced the BITCOIN Act.
This proposed legislation seeks to establish an official U.S. Bitcoin reserve, requiring the Treasury Department to acquire one million BTC over five years.
Recently, Trump has ramped up his support for cryptocurrency, kindling hope among enthusiasts that he might deliver on his promises.
A report from the New York Post on January 16 revealed that he’s contemplating broadening the proposed reserve to include various other cryptocurrencies, potentially adding USD Coin (USDC), Solana (SOL), and XRP to the mix.
Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency Adoption
Additionally, there are plans for Trump to issue an executive order highlighting cryptocurrency as a national priority.
This could be rolled out soon after his inauguration on January 20.
If realized, the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could greatly propel Bitcoin adoption, possibly even exceeding the effects anticipated from upcoming exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches in 2024, as noted by CoinShares, a cryptocurrency research firm.
Source: Cointelegraph
